I recently read an article (Grim Macintosh Market Share Forebodes Crisis) by John Dvorak, and he’s right. Very right.
There’s been a lot of commentary on this one, and I’m going to add to it with my own personal experience…
Before I get into that, I want to touch upon some other commentary by others. Paul Thurrott hit upon it exactly with this quote:
Anyway. What separates this from the PowerBook, really, are the options. They’re everywhere. Buttons that you can use to control playback of DVDs when you’re not in Windows. Slots for memory cards and a cool little remote control nestled in the PC card slot for when you need it (there’s no PC card slot on the Mac, naturally). What’s really happening here, and this is the point that Dvorak is alluding to, is that Apple (Jobs, really) is choosing form over function. No bit of functionality will marr the PowerBook’s smooth case, no matter how useful it would be. Hard drive light? Never! SD slot? Heresy! Switches to turn off the trackpad and wireless? No way!
And that’s the point. The HP has all those things and more. Yeah, it’s a bit busy looking compared to the PowerBook. But it’s also more powerful and more full-featured. It does more of what I–and most people–want. Sure, the Spartan design thing is cute for a little while, but real people need to get work done. And in the end, more should cost more, not less. Conversely, less (the PowerBook) should cost less. But it doesn’t. It costs a lot more.
And that, friends, is not a sustainable market. Dvorak is dead right on this one.
Some Personal Experience
I’ll get this out in the open right now… I’ve owned a Mac, I love OS X, and I really do want Apple to succeed. But from my own personal experience, marketshare does matter. It matters a lot.
One example: I work part time at CompUSA, mostly during the evening hours. I’ve worked part time at CompUSA for over a year now. When it comes to buying a complete computer from an OEM, there are two types of computer buyers. The ones who come in and say “Show me your Macs”, and the ones that come in and say, “I’m looking for a computer to buy”.
The second type of buyer doesn’t really care what type of computer they have as long as it’s inexpensive and it does what they need it to do. I tried an experiment out, and this supports what Paul said above. On the second type of computer buyer, I started showing them the Macs right off the bat. They were impressed with how it looked and with OS X, and with it’s ease of use. But then the subject of price and functionality came up.
“Now how do I get my pictures from my digital camera into the Mac?” is a pretty common one. Me: “Well, normally you need to purchase a USB card reader separately and plug it into the USB port… They usually run from $20 to $40 depending on which one you get… Another option would be if your camera has drivers to support OS X, you might be able to plug your camera straight into the Mac and get the pictures that way.” Customer: “Oh… I don’t have the driver disc or cable any more… A card reader isn’t built in?”
And so it goes
As the buyer and I continue having a conversation on stuff that they want to do on the computer, and on features and functionality they want the computer to have, they almost always get sidetracked to the HPs, Compaqs, Sony’s and Gateway/Emachines section of the hardware department. From there on out, on no effort on my part, they decide that they aren’t getting a Mac.
Why? “The Macs look nice, but I don’t want to have to buy a bunch of extra stuff to do what I want it to do.” This is a very common reason that I heard during my little experiment.
This is exactly John’s point. I see it first-hand. Up close and personal multiple times a week. When people buy a computer, they want it fully featured and all built in more than they want it to look nice. They may not know how to use it all, but they want it there for when they learn how to use it. The real turning point is when they see the prices. You can get a smoking fast media center PC that has virtually everything built in from HP for around $1600, not including the monitor. You’re going to spend at least that much on a smoking fast Mac, and it won’t have anywhere near as much stuff built in. No, those are all add-on things that you pay for on top of the cost of that shiny new Mac.
Let’s get down to numbers. In the past year, I’ve sold hundreds of notebook and desktop X86 based computers. In that same year, I’ve sold 1 Mac. During my little experiment, I didn’t succeed in selling any Macs despite my best efforts to do so. A lot of the people are buying the computer to do stuff with it, and as Paul said, the Shiny Allure of Apple’s computer products wears off pretty quickly when it comes down to actually getting stuff done.
Apple eschews functionality over form when it comes to their computer systems (and a lot of other things too). You get less. You pay more. That does not work.
Related stuff from around the web not really linked to or talked about in this post
- Scoble picked it up
- Dori Smith commented
- Dvorak’s Original Article
- B12 Partners
- Peter O’Kelly’s Reality Check
- Hawk’s Nest
- atmaspheric endeavors
- nosuch.org
- Dvorak started a blog entry on this
Update:
(From Scoble’s Link Blog) Dori Smith just partially proved some of my point. She has a CF reader in her Card slot… You had to buy that as an add on… This is getting to be very interesting… I’ll post more links as I run across them.
She has a CF reader in her Card slot… You had to buy that as an add on… This is getting to be very interesting…
Nope, it’s only interesting if you’re making stuff up or streching a point. Yes, the CF reader was extra ($5 or so, maybe?), but that was never the question. The issue was whether or not a PC card slot was available on a Mac, and yes, it comes standard on the 15″ and 17″ PowerBooks. It’s not a build-to-order option; in fact, you don’t have a choice whether you get one or not. That was what Thurrott claimed no Macs had, and, well, he was wrong.
If the card reader is your best argument against macs, then I think you are more jaded than you’ve allowed yourself to believe. Whether you think you have the drivers or not, virtually all cameras sold today work with both iPhoto as well as Image Capture which are both included and free. The USB cable comes in the box of all but the least expensive cameras.. though I imagine they might all come with cables now.
I actually could not disagree with you more. Macs come ready to go right out of the box, with iLife (installed and part of the package) you can utilize media you capture – which is something most people want now after getting online – also painless and simplified on Mac vs Windows.
If the card reader is your best argument against Macs, then I think you are more jaded than you’ve allowed yourself to believe. Whether you think you have the drivers or not, virtually all cameras sold today work with both iPhoto as well as Image Capture which are both included and free. The USB cable comes in the box of all but the least expensive cameras.. though I imagine they might all come with cables now. Apple has gone to great lengths to make sure the experience is simple and occurs in as few steps as possible.
The only thing you might need to purchase would be Microsoft Office…and that you can get an Educational discount on if anyone in your family is in school of any kind.
Of course you’ve also forgotten the virus, malware, spyware, worms and blue screens of death… all things Mac users know very little about.
Dori – I never agreed with Paul about the card slot. I am simply relaying my observations as a guy who sells both Macs and PCs in a retail environment. The fact of the matter is, even when I was trying to purposely sell Macs instead of PCs, most buyers gravitated towards the PC because it had a lot more stuff integrated into the PC, and the cost was usually either less money, or the same price for more stuff. I would stand there and just watch them think about it after they’ve looked at both of them, and 99.9% of the time, they would go with the PC.
By focusing on the errors, you’re kinda missing the forest for the trees. On a busy evening I can clear 2 or 3 PCs/Notebooks an hour without much effort. Try as I might, if all I was selling was Macs, I wouldn’t be getting a very big paycheck. I’ve sold one Mac to hundreds of Intel/AMD based computers. In the PC business, nobody is going to provide very good support if you’re in the minority. Macs are the Minority. I am not trying to Mac bash. I’ve owned a Mac in the past, I’ve used OS X, and I think it’s an awesome piece of software, but I think Apple would do well to get out of the PC Hardware business and give us all that really great software to use on a regular PC.
Jonathan – I was simply using the card reader as one example. Quite a few people that have bought stuff from me have more than one digital camera, and have had at least one for quite some time. They ask for a card reader because they have more than one card type between their cameras, and they usually have lost the cable for the camera (and no it’s not usually a standard USB cable with standard connectors. Only the brand new ones are like that, and even then, not all of them are). A nice 8 in one or 10 in 1 card reader built into the front of the computer is awfully handy at that point. Macs not having one is a valid point.
Don’t forget that many of these people have owned/used an Intel/AMD computer before and usually have a stack of software that they’ve purchased in the past that does what they want to do, and going to a Mac requires either buying the Mac version (which there usually isn’t a Mac version), or learning a rough equivalent in new software, which they probably have to buy as well, and don’t really want to learn new software when their old software works just fine.
If you think that’s all anybody needs with a Mac after they take it right out of the box, then I highly suggest you take up a job in retail selling computer stuff. MS Office (or any office suite for that matter) is a pretty low seller. There are shelves and shelves and shelves of software in my store, and because I work evenings, I get to stock them after we close. Yes, having office fulfills a lot of basic productivity needs, and a browser fulfills a lot of surfing needs, but a lot of people use their computers for a lot more than that, and most of the software in that store has no Mac version or equivalent (or does, but the Mac version is quite a bit more money).
I have a saying. The people who reload their computer every few weeks/months don’t use their computer’s for much. If you take a brand new Mac out of the box and buy office, and it then serves everything you do, then you don’t use your computer for much. I’ve tried this when I bought my Mac. It’s like switching from Windows to Linux. It has a lot of wow neato stuff, but when it comes time to get some work done, you’re left standing there with a whole slew of historical data/applications that you use on a regular basis in windows world that has no easy replacement in a Mac or Linux. Getting stuff done becomes a lot harder because then you’re constantly switching between computers because there’s stuff you can’t do on the Mac/Linux that you do on the PC all the time. And then before you know it, you just simply go back to using the windows computer because it’s easier with the software and data that you have… OR blow everything away and make a clean start with a Mac. Most people aren’t willing to do that.
If you started off with a Mac, you don’t experience this problem and can’t really truly relate. Instead you live in a little world that Apple provides, and use your computer how Apple tells you to use it, because they provide a decent chunk of the experience out of the box. You think that the out of box plus office is all you need. That’s not using the tech to it’s fullest potential.
Buying a computer is like buying a car. The initial price you pay is only a portion of your overall investment. If you don’t examine the total cost of ownership, you’re only getting part of the picture.
I think most people would gladly pay a couple of hundred dollars more upfront than have hours of their lives and more dollars sucked away on support costs.
How many dollars and man hours have been wasted by PC malware? I know people who buy whole new computers instead of dealing with the support headache of fixing a compromised computer. And these folks aren’t Mac owners.
I’m a completely cross platform person, mind you, and to me, the tools you use depend on the job you want to do. But in my experience, most people just want a computer that “works.” What I think Dvorak misses, besides a basic grasp of statistics, is that it isn’t features that sell products, but quality.
Not to say Apple has a perfect track record on the hardware side. But on the software side, they are doing a pretty fine job when you look at the alternatives.
I wonder what the average IQ of a Mac user is, compared to a PC user. If someone loses their camera cable they get what they deserve, right?
Rod – People losing their cables is actually very common, especially if they’re not the only ones who use the camera. One of the top things I see is people coming into the store looking for replacement cables, batteries, hard to find accessories, etc…
We get a lot of people buying new stuff, but there are just as many people who lost some part of something and looking to try to get it working again by just getting a replacement of whatever is missing.
If the manfufacturers would use industry standard cables and connectors, then it would be easy to just give them a replacement cable. Unfortunately, most of everything out there has their own proprietary connector, which means you can usually only get it from the manufacturer.
Adrian, I think you owe it to your self to spend some quality time (at least a long weekend, no other boxen allowed) with a modern Mac. As a Unix geek you will appreciate having the full feature CLI side by side with a consistent, robust, and beautiful GUI. (No partitions, no dual booting, the best of both worlds — all the time.) Your sales job at Comp USA will benefit too as you really need to understand the capabilities of the iLife suite to appreciate OS X. The Windows paradigm of using hard media to get photos out of a digital camera is unbelievable broken, and can’t see that. You must get past the mindset of “this is how I would do this in Windows, let me try to emulate that” and grok the basic “How would a Mac user do this task?” You actually sound more Mac-aware than most Comp USA sales persons, but it is this dismal environment (software and all) that has caused Apple to migrate to their highly successful chain store model.
Bruce – Up until just very recently, I owned and used a pretty modern Mac, complete with OS X and all. I’m fully aware of what a Mac can do. I salivate with all the new Mac hardware that comes in (that 30 inch screen is awesome).
The problem isn’t with me not knowing about Macs, it’s with getting the average windows computer user to grok Macs. If they have a digital camera and lost the cables, and can’t get a new cable that works very easily, what’s the next best thing?
A Card Reader.
They’re already looking at buying a new computer, for the average buyer, it’s very important that everything that they have now works with what they buy without having to buy a bunch of extra add-on stuff. Unfortunately, for many a buyer, it means staying in Windows World because if they do switch to a Mac, then that means scrapping a significant chunk of what they’ve already got and switching over, usually for more money.
Not very many people really want to spend money on a computer. Something a lot of Mac users don’t grok about the average computer user is that they don’t view a computer the same. Most don’t care what it looks like. The only thing most care about is that it’s not expensive, it works, and it’s backwards compatible with all their old software.
As you’ve implied, switching to a Mac meanings pretty much giving windows up completely, and most people won’t or can’t do that, especially considering the cost differential.
Hey, it’s your blog and all, I don’t want to fight with you. I am having a hard time reconsiling your familarity with Macs with your picking digital camera as a difficult selling point for Macs. Would you not agree that this is an area where most Mac users experience (vis-a-vis iPhoto) is much better than the usual Windows users experience?
What happened to your Mac?
Every digital camera I have tried has used a similar cable but I am sure exceptions exist. Still, loosing a proparity cable while being in the market for a new computer isn’t a very common scenerio is it?
I guess your beef is with the lack of built-in support for odd media, forgetting about the camera. Of course, the Mac works fine with those 12/8-in-one USB card readers but that isn’t good enough? I think this points out Apple conundrum: Which of those dozen different media types should Apple support natively? The Dell approach to support several doesn’t help if your camera uses one that isn’t included. You are also probably paying a little for support for formats you will never use. This approach is also ugly. The PowerBook gives you USB, FireWire, and PCMCIA (which, of course, can be configured to accept the type of media your digital camera, or whatever, uses).
Apple has done a rather commendable job with compatibility. The Windows switcher probably doesn’t have to give up his printer nor monitor (nor scanner, nor camera, etc.). Yep, they probably have to re-purchase software. Anything else?
It is probably worth pointing out that Apple has done better by contemporary Windows switchers than it did for long time users upgrading from Mac OS 8/9. In addition to buying all new software for X, they had to throw away their SCSI peripherals and Apple brand monitors!
People don’t have to give up Windows. Many switchers keep their game machine, or use KVM switches, or buy Virtual PC. People tend to give up Windows completely (and Linux-only boxes) because the OS X environment is so compelling. Using OS X makes one down right contempuous of the Windows. The cost differential disappears when one figures in how much longer Macintosh computers remain useful. So far, each iteration of OS X has gotten faster with the same old hardware!
*Sigh*
They didn’t lose their cable right when they went to buy a new computer… It’s been lost for a while. The computer they’re contemplating replacing usually already has a built in multi-card reader, and they’d like to have the same or better in the new computer. The cable you refer to on CompUSA’s website is simply a standard USB cable with the mini usb connector on one end. Most new camera’s have that type of connector, so that’s a none issue. I’m referring to the hundreds of different cameras that are years old. People keep referring to newer stuff when replying to me. Yes with newer stuff that’s a non issue. With older stuff that is an issue, and believe me, there is way more older stuff than there is newer stuff out there.
I see ranges from, “I just bought a computer (or whatever electronic gadget of your choice) 6 months ago (or less) and I need something faster/better” (usually from a power user), to “I need a new computer (or electronic gadget of your choice). The last one I bought was 5 or 6 years ago (or more)”.
Perhaps you’re missing the point that I haven’t been doing anything but relaying what customers tell me. I personally don’t have a beef about it because it really hasn’t been an issue with my particular situation. A lot of other people however see it differently, and after I spend a bunch of time with them on the sales floor trying to sell them a Mac listening not only to their reasons for not going with a Mac, but the rational behind it, I see exactly where they are coming from.
You just proved exactly my point.
Apple eschews functionality over form with their hardware. Plain and simple. Their prices do not reflect less hardware funtionality. This is exactly why, no matter how hard I try to sell Macs, Intel/Amd based PC’s outsell them 200+ to 1. That’s less than 3%. It’s been that way for as long as I’ve worked there.
Granted there’s some variance in selling ratios throughout the country, but if what I’m seeing is fairly common, then think about this: If Apple has 3% now and most of the big retail chains consistently sell less than half a percent Macs, how can that 3% even maintain? In order for it to maintain you have to be selling 3% pretty much most of the time, or at least average selling 3%. Even if you factor in Apple selling direct and through their own retail stores, I highly doubt they’re selling 3% of the total market for computers. That 3% may hold steady now, but unless they do something pretty fast, it’s not going to be too long before that 3% starts to slip down to 2.5%, then 2%, then 1.5%, then 1% and so on. At some point they have to start jacking the prices up even more to make up for the loss of volume because they aren’t getting bulk prices on supplies. Once that cascade chain loop starts its almost impossible to stop. At 3%, they’re barely above the cascade loop.
Take a step back and look at the whole tamale. Where are they really at? More importantly, at the current rate of things, where are they headed, and what are they doing about it?
As to what happened to my Mac, I sold it on Ebay. Between Windows and Linux on my various PCs, my Mac spent quite a bit of time sitting there doing nothing because it didn’t do anything in particular better than what I could get between the other two OSes. Linux is a bigger threat to Apple than it is to Microsoft.
I am fascinated that you walked away from OS X. Which version? Sadly, I know several people who gave up Mac for Windows (years ago), but no one who has tried 10.2 or latter. In particular, what can you do with Linux that you can’t do with Terminal? From what I read on the web, Linux switchers seem to be Apple’s best customers! I am having a hard time visualizing you as a sincere Mac pitchman.
There is no evidence that Apple’s market share is not sustainable. Even 1% of a growing market is enough to keep them in business. It’s not like Porche has 1% of the market, and they are doing fine. I predict that Dvorak will soon be appearing as no. 45 on the Apple Death Kneel Counter.
I have no doubt that your experience at CompUSA is typical. Of course, I imagine you must have nothing but contempt for the average computer buyer. It must kill you to work there. How many OS-free PC’s do you sell? Or PC’s with Linux pre-installed?
Does Paul Thurrott site have a public feedback section? I couldn’t find it. As you would expect, I think he is wrong, but I might as well tell him that rather than you! John Dvorak’s article has generated over three hundred responses, but I suspect he just likes to stir things up.
You might be intrigued by this article at Linux Insider: Macs Are More Expensive, Right?
You can believe what you want, but I don’t really like Microsoft, and even though XP fits a lot of scenarios, I’d prefer to go the Mac or Linux route. Also, I didn’t give my Mac up for Windows. I gave it up for Linux and Windows. I only use Windows when I have to, otherwise I prefer Linux. The version of OS X was Jaguar, or the 10.2 version. Being a software developer at my main job requires that I use windows and Linux the bulk of the time, and I just have a really hard time doing development work for the rest of the world on a Mac. The tools just aren’t there. It all comes down to Marketshare. If Apple had more marketshare, then I might be able to get the tools that I use almost every day for OS X, but sadly enough, that just ain’t happening, which leaves me with Linux and Windows. At the technical complexity level all three operating systems are pretty evenly matched if you don’t consider costs. Windows has an incredible amount of power under the covers that MS simply doesn’t advertise or even act like its there, but for those who are willing to get into the meat of it, there is a lot there. The Linux community flaunts that same power that Linux has as an advantage, but has terrible documentation, making it more difficult to use. Apple has a state of the art operating system that is as complex as it is pretty to look at, but really under-utilizes it and over-simplifies it just like Microsoft does to the OS they built. Some Linux Switchers are Apple’s best customers because they can’t stand Windows because they can’t stand Microsoft, they try Linux, find that it’s too complex and hard to use because it exposes the raw functionality without good documentation, and end up going to the considerably easier to use Mac. You’ll typically find that most converts have no problems with PC hardware. It’s Microsoft and Windows they have problems with, and it’s not so much Windows per se that they have a problem with, it’s really Microsoft they have a problem with. If Linux were easier to use, they’d stay with Linux. Can you see where Apple is missing a huge opportunity here? Computer hardware has been a commodity for a while now. Most people are not willing to pay a lot for hardware, no matter how pretty it is. They are however willing to pay for software. OS X should be on PCs, and leave Windows in the dust.
As far as being a Mac pitchman, I’m not. I don’t constantly advocate one OS over another in all instances. I advocate that you use what works for your situation, and there are some situations where Macs are a perfect fit, some situations where Linux is a perfect fit, and some situations where Windows is a perfect fit. Market share does have some bearing on this because computers are useless without software, some situations require some types of software that are available on only one platform, namely Windows. Some software is available on only OS X. Some software is only available as part of a Linux Distribution or Package.
Apple covers a lot of basic bases in terms of basic software functionality with the software distributed with OS X. I never said it didn’t meet basic needs. It’s when you start getting into doing real stuff with your computer is when you start running into problems. Apple has awesome Content Creation software. Outside of that, there’s a lot of huge gaping holes in terms of software.
Actually, my experiences are not typical at all. The average CompUSA employee only knows more than the buyer because of the mandatory monthly training that CompUSA requires (and the training is mostly info that you can use as selling points, not actual technical info). Most of the people that work the sales floor outside of supervisors/leads and managers are either still in school, or just out of school, and for them, this is just another job. I already have a highly technical full time job that I love. I work at CompUSA because as an employee, I can buy stuff at cost. I buy a lot of stuff. As far as the average buyer, I don’t feel contempt for them at all. I feel sorry for them because they just don’t know, and it’s not because they’re stupid, it’s because they just haven’t had any exposure and experience. I spend the bulk of my time on the sales floor answering questions. Working at CompUSA has actually been a very enlightening experience. I’ve gained an incredible amount of up close and personal insight into the average computer user and how they think and buy. This is why I’m saying Apple is in trouble. They’re not aiming their computers at the average computer user. The demos that run on most of the Macs in the store don’t showcase the bundled software that would make life easy for the average computer user. They showcase Final Cut Pro HD. The average computer user has a real use for that.
Okay Adrian, I think I finally am starting to understand where you are coming from. You are not just a Unix uber user, you are a developer for x86 distros of Linux. Naturally you need to natively compile binaries and run executables. You are not about to give up your x86 hardware that pays the bills.
The free development supports for OS X are decent by the way. For Unix geeks there is Terminal (of course), X11, and lots of pre-packaged
Unix is too complicated for the masses. MS-DOS was too complicated for the masses! The Linux GUIs have gotten much better in recent years, but they are still clumsy (and inconsistent) as compared to Windows. Windows XP is pretty good (especially compared to earlier versions) and is probably acceptable for someone leaving Mac OS 9. I have to tell you, after someone has gotten used to Panther, XP feels like a toy.
You assert that “OS X should be on PCs, and leave Windows in the dust.” This is the wet dream of many, but it won’t happen. (1) Apple makes most of their money selling hardware, not software. One could make the case that OS X exists primarily to move hardware. (2) Intel hardware would be nightmare to support. x86 may not be sufficient to run OS X. After all, the PPC can run Windows. Virtual PC on OS X can emulate Windows. The reverse has not been done, so this implies that the PPC is a superior architecture to any Intel chip.
I also disagree with your assertion that there are “huge gaping holes in terms of software”. From a consumer perspective, except for certain game houses, what is missing? From a professional perspective, just about every field is covered. Agree, there are lots of limited distribution (but perhaps business critical) applications that make switching to OS X quite difficult, but I still don’t think it is fair to characterize this gap as “huge”.
You don’t sound like the average CompUSA employee, but your customers sound very typical of the unwashed masses that don’t know that they have a choice beyond Windows. You didn’t answer my inquiry about selling PCs that boot Linux. The question was rhetorical as I am sure the answer is zero.
As I wrote before, if Apple was content with the product CompUSA was moving they wouldn’t have started their retail stores. If the retail store idea wasn’t working for them, they wouldn’t be opening new ones! If CompUSA is showing Final Cut Pro HD and not iMovie, that is a mistake. iDVD and iPhoto are extremely compelling and addictive for the average computer user.
Actually, I develop software for more than just Linux, even though quite a bit of my stuff ends up running on Linux boxes, I also write quite a bit of software for Windows too… Keep in mind, this is not consumer level software, this is strictly in the server/back end business space.
What it really comes down to, is are there Apple/Mac based replacements that can be made to work? Most of the time, yes. But, are there true equivalents that I can use interchangeably with little to no loss of productivity? In some cases yes, but in many cases, no. That’s what I mean by gaping holes. This article, while it talks mostly about open source, can have many of the high level principles it talks about applied to Macs as well.
In terms of Selling a PC without Windows or an OS or with Linux pre-installed. If that where an option, I would make it available to the prospective customer, but the only real way for that to happen is if you buy all the parts you need off the shelf (which we have), then pick a distro off the shelf (we have a few). Most computer users are not going to do that.
Uuuummmm… The Apple reps control what gets displayed in our stores, and what demos are loaded on the Macs. They even have a lot of say with how the Apple section of the store is laid out. If Apple is not happy with how that’s working out, then it’s mostly Apple’s fault. The Reps come in with all the display materials and product layout diagrams and everything. Perhaps they’re finding out that if Apples are physically close to PCs, most buyers gravitate towards the PCs and ignore the Macs? I don’t know, but if I was Apple, and I saw the sales numbers I personally see while working there, I’d be very concerned.
What percentage of people use their computers primarily for development of back end software?
The NewsForge article you cite is interesting, but of course its main point is that the free software movement is hindered by home users routine violation of software licenses. This criticism applies to OS X too, I find it ironic that Apple is on the loser side for both arguments, yet is not mentioned at all in the story!
Where I disagree with you is your characterization of the disparity of software as leaving a “gaping” hole. After all, the commercial apps named in that article are available in native versions for OS X! What if Jem Matzen had asked the question, “Are there true equivalents that I can use interchangeably with little to no loss of productivity in OS X?” The answer, for her and most people is a resounding “Yes!” As for the Jem’s main point, Apple has acknowledged this issue and provides a reasonably priced “Family Pack” as an option for OS X and iLife. The current discounts make iLife available at no cost when purchasing OS X (both single copies and Family Pack).
Sure, one can buy a PC in pieces at CompUSA without Windows. But how much more would that cost you as compared to a pre-built offering (that came bundled with Windows)? It would seem that the “Microsoft Tax” gets you either way, at least Walmart is offering PCs OS free (or a free OS as the case may be)!
I am disheartened (but not really surprised) that it is Apple’s poor choice to market high-end apps over iLife inside the CompUSA setting. I would love to read their rational for this! Still, even aside from Web-stores, it has never been easier for a consumer to buy a Macs.
I would like to point out that Apple has been making questionable choices for decades. It is really quite remarkable that they have lasted this long! I have been hearing about beleaguered Apple and their impending doom since at least since 1981. (The IBM PC was released in 1981, I regret that the ADKC only starts in 1995!) That said, Apple computers have never been so affordable, so compatible, and so powerful. These three important adjectives all apply in absolute and relative terms — the Apple II debuted at $1295, and the G5 has such parity (if superiority) to any Pentium chip that some are building super computers out of them! Observers with perspective who in the past might have been concerned (by articles like the recent ones by John Dvorak and Paul Thurrott), now have the luxury to merely be amused.
I don’t work for Apple, I don’t own Apple stock, but aren’t their sales figures and stock prices at an all-time high? With all the mergers (and IBM’s sale) are they not like the third largest USA computer manufacturer? If memory serves (which it often doesn’t) weren’t they #1 for at least one quarter not too long ago? Not that they are taking things for granted, but I don’t think Apple is too concerned about going out of business, and the sales numbers you personally observe would not seem be indicative of their overall current success.
I am very much enjoying this debate (you are well informed, articulate, and open minded), but can you please think of a more compelling example of your main point than digital camera interoperability? As you observe, John Dvorak’s article generated plenty of debate (and there have been some references to Paul Thrurrott’s follow-up in those) but can you suggest a more appropriate forum for me to respond to the latter’s litany of complaints? Thanks.
As far as Paul goes, I don’t have any other way to get ahold of him except via email, and that’s on his website…
I’ve got a busy morning (I have to do the Linux Log Podcast), so as far as your other points, I’ll have to get back to you later (and I will)… So check back in a day or two, and I’ll have some more to talk about.
I’m the manager of prepress in a print shop and, as such, I deal with OS 9&X, Win 2000&XP and Linux on a daily basis. For print work, nothing beats a Mac. Nothing. For everything else, personally, I use Linux.
You will take away my Linux box away when your bullet-riddled body prys it from my cold, dead hands.
Actually, there is a OSS emulator in development called PearPC that can run OS X under windows. It’s extremely beta, but OS X has managed to load and run.
Thanks for proving my point (2) Wes! PearPC has a few limitations whereas Virtual PC (and its predecessors) is actually useable.
Now, let me try to take on Paul Thurrott. John Dvorak has plenty of detractors.
Nice trick, but if I read the article right, this was one model of HP using Linux. Of course if the battery and sleep capabilities of a PowerBook were as miserable, maybe Apple would have to look into this kind of hack. Do you know how you put a PowerBook to sleep? You close the lid! Did you know that for long trips you can change the battery in PowerBooks without needing to shut them down?
Actually the middle and large size PowerBook has a standard PC card slot. I don’t know if that remote is OS X compatible, fortunately you can use just about any bluetooth device as a remote.
No, Apple is choosing both. When Jobs announce the Titanium G4 PowerBook four years ago he boasted about wanting sexiest and most powerful. He compared it to the top of the line Sony Vario, and beat it on all counts. In the years since, the available WinTell laptops have improved relatively to the PowerBook, but if you try pricing out a non-discontinued laptop with the same features as a PowerBook (start with the screen, and then find FireWire) you will discover that the PowerBooks are still competitive. The iBooks are even a better deal. Oh yeah, they are not ugly.
At least we agree Apple makes good looking machines. Wouldn’t that be refreshing to see from HP and Dell? We disagree that functionality is missing.
Sadly, this is his best complaint. On the other hand, how much would you pay for this feature? WinTell owners are used to this and no doubt the subtle reassurance provided by the flickering LED. It harkens back to the days when this was the only way one could tell the computer hadn’t locked up. Oh yeah, you probably still need that. We Mac users have just become accustomed our computers working, and don’t miss this little light. Different levels of expectations I suppose.
If you need SD or some other obsolete media, get a PC card adapter. Most (99%+) people will be fine with USB thumb drives or cables.
I have seen my share of WinTell laptops, I haven’t come across a switch to turn off the TrackPad, but I guess it could exist. No cheap and cheesy switches on the iBook and PowerBook. Happily, features for this kind of thing are well integrated into the OS. The default setting for the TrackPad (for example) is to ignore brief touches when your typing. The TrackPad can be set to automatically deactivate when you plug in a USB pointing device. Why turn off wireless if the machine is asleep? If the screen is on, “Turn Airport Off” is two easy clicks from anywhere (not like digging through tiny icons in menus in the Task Bar).
No doubt the “more” part is even weaker than the “features” he takes the time to list!
The second thing we agree on. It is ugly, and offers low-cost features most people won’t need or are hacks for a poorly designed operating system.
I see you’re still trying Bruce…
Let me just ask a simple question regarding Virtual PC and Pear PC. What’s the point of emulating a Mac on a PC? It’s certainly not so you can gain compatibility with something because just about every non Apple developed piece of software for the Mac on the planet has a PC version too. The only reason I can think of to emulate a Mac is to get OS X, and surely it would be much easier to simply provide an x86 version of OS X, which is more than capable of running an x86 version of OS X. Or you could just buy a Mac.
Actually, quite a few PC Notebooks do that, and they run Windows. You can also configure most laptops to either go into sleep mode or hibernate when you close the lid too, and yes you can change the battery in hibernate mode too. This is old functionality that’s been in PC laptops for quite some time.
This is actually part of the problem. You see, in PC land, new laptops come out every 6 to 12 months, and it’s not usually more of the same. Each new revision is faster, has more functionality packed into the same form factor, and is generally an improvement over the last version. Apples on the other hand, get a nice release, and then that’s it. The powerbook I can buy today is almost exactly the same as one from almost two years ago save maybe a faster processor, more ram, and larger hard drive. It’s a static platform in the sense that they don’t add anything else to it. You can take one from two years ago and compare it to a brand new one today, and they look almost exactly the same. In fact, if you closed the lid, you probably wouldn’t be able to tell the two apart without looking very closely.
Actually, here is where you seriously need to take a look at the current market. SD cards are not obsolete. They are very common in many new digital cameras, not to mention, just about every PDA that supports adding a flash device supports SD. And this is exactly my point from before. For a premium computer or laptop, I shouldn’t have to buy an add-on card reader for something that is still very common. It should be built in, and on most of the computers and laptops in PC land they are, and Apple, which is supposed to have a superior product does not have something that most consumers find very desirable.
Once again, this is where you seriously need to take a good look at the current PC laptop/notebook market. This sort of functionality has been there for quite some time. It’s awfully nice to have a little button to push and the wireless is off. You don’t even have to mess with going into windows to shut it off. The same for the trackpad. And believe it or not, yes this stuff is integrated pretty tightly with windows. You’ve made it pretty obvious that you haven’t had a pretty serious look the retail PC market in quite some time. This stuff constantly changes, usually for the better. Every new revision has more things, is usually faster, and more stable.
Like John and Paul said. With a PC you get more. You usually pay less. With a Mac, you get less, you usually pay more. Unless you’re suffering from the Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field. Then, with a Mac, you get far more, and pay far less than you would for a PC.
The Mac Mini is proof positive that Apple has a sales problem. At our store, we got a whole pile of Mac Minis in. We sold out two hours after the store opened. The number of other Apple computers sold a week before hand and since we got the Mac Mini in: 0. The number of PCs and Notebooks sold a week beforehand and since we got the Mac Mini in: several dozen.
Sorry, I never left!
Back on 9 Jan you wrote:
I got tired of waiting, and Wes gave me an excuse to write.
Agreed…
Easier for whom? Apple is not so inclined. PearPC will run OS X, that is the whole point. Unfortunately (if that article I linked to is up to date) your x86 CPU will now have an apparent speed rating of 1/40th its nominal clock speed. If one assumes a 400% loss to emulation, poor code, and similar inefficiencies, this implies the PowerPC is about 10x more powerful than the latest Pentium…
Not exactly. I should have gone into more detail.
It is only in the past year or so that x86 laptops have gotten refined to the point where one could really trust this to work. Again, I credit Apple with raising the bar for expectations.
I am not talking hibernate mode, I am talking sleep mode. Again, the PowerBooks have done this since Jan 2001. I have not encountered this with any Wintel laptops, but I would expect maybe Sony to have added this by now. And before you complain about the lack of a hibernate feature for Apple laptops, they haven’t need it. Hibernate was a hack added as an option for WinTel laptops because the sleep state was so unreliable. PowerBooks will hold a charge for days while in sleep mode.
I don’t think you will find much argument about the PowerBooks being overdue for a big boost. To some extent, Apple is the victim of their own success, as people expect a revolution in each line every year! I disagree with your characterization that x86 give you anything other than modest speed bumps and increases in memory. Apple does that much every six months too!
Excepting rare tricks where Paul’s $2000 notebook acts like a $200 DVD player, “faster, more RAM, larger hard drive” is pretty much all x86 laptops have improved in the last few years, except that they have started to approach the PowerBook in size and battery life, so the performance gap has been closed a little. Still, how much does Firewire cost you on a Wintel laptop? How about DVI? DVD-R? Integrated antenna for the wireless? How about 54 Mbps Wireless? How about a 17″ screen? Wide screen? Is gigabyte Ethernet available at all? How about Firewire 800?
Again, I think you could say the same thing about x86 laptops too, especially with the lids closed! In the last two years Apple has standardized on AirPort Extreme, DVI, Firewire 800, and made the 17″ model available. The iBook went from G3 to G4.
Yes, Secure Digital has gained some in popularity. They are still a highly specialized media. You will also find avid proponents for CompactFlash (Type I and II), Memory Stick (Duo, PRO, and PRO Duo), miniSD, MultiMedia Card (regular MMC and RS MMC), SmartMedia (SSFDC), and xD-Picture Card. Back in the day people used to complain about the lack of a floppy diskette, then Zip (or Jazz or Orbit or SuperDisk, etc.). There are media that have seemed good, like SD, but fallen out of fashion in a relatively short time. Tell me, what do you think the odds are that five years from now that most digital cameras will be using SD?
You are missing the bigger picture! The SD card might be the best a Windows user can expect, but most Mac users have a great experience using their digital cameras because of iPhoto and the USB cable. Most Mac users have a great experience with their DV Camcorders because of iMovie (and iDVD) and the Firewire cable. Why are you not complaining that the x86 box doesn’t come with a reader for DV tapes? The whole paradigm of using media to move files from one digital device to another is a holdover from the first personal computers of the 1970s. Sure, the mislead consumer might well ask for this, but they don’t really need it. If they insist, SD compatibility is an inexpensive accommodation. This is a better choice than sticking most buyers with a useless hole. At CompUSA, are you at liberty to keep a company camera and cable in your pocket so when the clueless consumer asks about an SD slot being missing on the Mac you can show them iPhoto instead?
I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on this. I am comfortable that I have made the case that the Apple approach to these details is more functional in additional to being more elegant. Perhaps it is a matter of taste.
My office (I work in MIS) distributes new laptops to fellow employees every year. I pay attention to the current models (middle of the business line Compaqs, Dells, and Toshibas) and I must say I am just not the least impressed. I occasionally have to do the end-user training personally, so it’s not like I can get away with not paying fair attention. I pulled a new Dell Latitude 600 out of the closet today to make sure I wasn’t missing something. No stupid switches for the wireless or trackpad (I can only guess how many calls that generates to the help desk). No SD slot either. Granted, the retail channel get different features, and I am not much interested. (Plus the CompUSA where I am keeps everything locked down. Personally, I can’t appreciate a laptop unless I can pick it up.)
I may come to regret it, but since you (and Paul and John) have been honest enough not to complain about the lack of a floppy drive or second mouse button, I will throw you a bone here: Wintel notebooks have finally gotten good enough that we are comfortable deploying them as desktop replacements, and the simultaneous improvements in docking stations makes this possible. Of course, what I really want in a docking station is an updated version of the DuoDock that was available in 1992.
I defy you to find a current model x86 desktop or portable that has all the features of a current model Mac and costs less. This debate comes up all the time on SlashDot, and the Mac zealots routinely come out on top. Maybe you could do it in the past, but not for years. This even allows for arguing that Windows XP Pro == OS X 10.3 and that your cost for time in assembling components is zero $. For this challenge, I do require that you match everything the Mac offers, including Firewire and form factor. If you manage to get close, I will ask that you make some attempt to account for bundled software. There are only two ways (really opposite aspects of the same technique) to make a Wintel box price competitive with an Apple: assign a zero $ value to some essential Macintosh features, or insist on settling for less (because you need less). There are just two model lines of portable Macs, and four basic desktop configurations (soon to just be three). There are literally hundreds of models of Wintel models. Isn’t it odd that no manufacturer can beat one of these six Apples point for point but at a lower retail price?
Anyway, I feel that arguing that a PowerBook is rip-off because it doesn’t include an SD slot is just weak. Please, I asked before, can you think of a more compelling example of your main point than digital camera interoperability?
This is your idea of a sales problem?
Since I am your guest, I was going to do you the courtesy of not bringing up the Mini! You get the last word, it’s your blog. I am hoping we can come to some kind of conclusion. Maybe, then, I should stop asking you questions?
We are in agreement that CompUSA is poor at selling Macs! Again, your dismal sales figures (before the Mini) help explain why Apple has opened up their own chain. I am encouraged to hear that the Mini is compelling enough not to need that kind of assistance!
Sorry Bruce, I did mean to respond, but life did get busy for me… I’ll tell you what I’m going to do… This is has been an interesting conversation and deserves its own post, so I’m going to make a new post and talk about this… I’ll go ahead and do my best to respond to your comments…
One last thing, and this is just a suggestion, and I’ve seen it happen several times… laptops are not all equal… There are laptops aimed at the business market (which you see all the time at your job), and there are laptops aimed at the consumer market (which you probably rarely see, and I see almost every day). They are very different machines. Very different machines.
What market are Apple computers aimed at? Consumers, or Business? Saying Apples are aimed at every market does not count, because nobody makes something that perfectly fits every market. Once you decide that, then please compare a computer in PC land aimed at the same market that the Apple is aimed at. I’ve seen several comparisons around the web, and quite frankly comparing two computers aimed at two different markets is like comparing two cars aimed at two different markets. Huge mistake.
No problem, my feelings were only hurt a little. I was just guessing you were hoping I would go away.
I think so too, I am grateful you are suitably entertained. Please make the link to new thread obvious for me!
So much space, you might never shut me up! Really, I think I might be done now…
Yes, I am starting to appreciate that I should be paying a little more attention to the retail space. The gimmick of allowing to a laptop to so easily emulate a DVD player would not be much appreciated in my work environment! On the other hand, with it’s excellent battery life, instant wake time from sleep, superior on-screen controls, and integrated function keys for volume and eject, the Apple portables probably almost do as nice a job with this as the HP Pavilion, despite its dedicated hardware.
Apple has, for several years now, been pursing a very streamlined “four corners†strategy: high and middle end desktops and laptops, corresponding to tower PowerMac, iMac, PowerBook, and iBook. Some blamed the failure of the G4 Cube on deviation from this pattern, but they are wrong (it was ridiculous premium pricing that doomed the Cube). The relative success of the eMac, and now the Mini Mac, proves there is room for a low end model. I actually agree with Paul Thurott on this point, the Mini is the heir to the G3 iMac, and it is the G5 iMac that is the anomaly. I must say the current situation is much preferable to the proliferation of models Apple had in 93/94/95. I am inclined to agree with you that Apple should not be selling PowerMacs and PowerBooks at CompUSA. On the other hand, it is not like they have OS X Home and OS X Pro!
Well, I fully agree with your comment.
Martin
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – -
http://www.HelpDeskSITE.us
http://www.BusinessIntelligenceSITE.com
http://www.EGAFutura.com